Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds
9F on Dirt (February 13)
Horse Racing Data Analyzed: Last 19 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds
Date Range: January 1, 2012 – Present
Sharp Angle: Ranked 1st in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace
Factor Stats: 20 contenders, 5 winners (25%, $48.60 Win Return, 221 ROI%), 8 Place (40% $17.60 Place Return) 12 show (60% $6.40 Show Return)
The first of the ¨”Championship Series” Kentucky Derby points races is Saturday with the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Now run at a mile and one eighth after being run a sixteenth of a mile shorter for most of it´ s history, the Risen Star drew a 10-horse field of sophomores from around the country.
The Betmix Angler online handicapping database tells us that Avg. Last 3 Late Pace has been a predictive handicapping factor for the 9-furlong graded dirt stakes at Fair Grounds.
This factor was particularly effective in 2020 when the Risen Star was carded at 9 furlongs for the first time and run in two divisions. Enforceable, the 4.60-1 runner up in the 1st division was top-ranked in Avg. Last 3 Late Pace as was Modernist, the $27.60 winner of the 2nd division.
Find this race in Betmix Birddog and use the Avg. Last 3 Late Pace slider to see which horse ranks first in this factor. That’s the Sharp Angles play.
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